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I think it's Earth.

However, I don't think the whole planet will be a wasteland like what was viewed in the final episode. I'm "guessing" they zeroed in on what appeared to be the most developed part of whatever continent they were over and landed there only to find that all the buildings etc were destroyed.

I'm guessing we'll see more of Earth and that there will be some more habitable areas and possibly even some survivors of whatever happened on Earth (nuclear war apparently).

I'm quite inclined to follow the "theory" that when Kara jumped to Earth back in season 3 she somehow ignited a "world war" on Earth and the result is the now apparently barren Earth, thus fulfilling the Hybrid's prophecy that Starbuck is the Harbringer of Death (or whatever it was). It could also help explain why Earth looks different now to what it did when it was originally seen. I'm guessing that a country could have mistaken Kara's Viper as some sort of missile and prematurely launched a nuke against another country out of fear?

Of course, even if it is Earth, I still have to wonder why they wouldn't consider heading back to the 12 Colonies. In "Downloaded" the Cylons were busy re-building Caprica (including planting trees, etc) so I'm guessing it must still be a pretty habitable place (unless the trees were meant to be "plastic" or something). Now that they've formed an alliance, there really doesn't seem to be much reason not to head back to the 12 Colonies (unless they're worried about the "evil" Cylon Nos. 1, 4 and 5 keeping the colonies for themselves).

Also, perhaps I'm getting confused (it's been a while since I last watched the episodes), but wasn't Kobol a nice, green and lush planet which would be perfect for re-building a civilisation? Again, I guess they could be avoiding it because of the other cylons still out there, but surely it is also another option if "Earth" is the h3ll-hole it appears to be all over its surface. Or the Algae planet is meant to be pretty close to Kobol and Kobol was somehow destroyed when the Algae planet went "boom".

Hopefully, they will at least address the reasons behind not going back to the original colonies and/or Kobol at some point (even if it is just a simple, "we're out of fuel and can't make any more"). Either that or put it down to fear of the remaining "evil" cylons.

Cheers.

Didn't "head" Elosha herself state that you can't believe the prophecies (in "The Hub") or that they were essentially BS?

And I thought it was the "dying leader" would lead them to Earth. Not the "dead leader". Then again, there is a theory that Natalie (the Six leader of the rebel cylons) was the prophecised leader spoken of.

Or perhaps the prophecy didn't count on Baltar using Hera's stem cells to temporarily revive Laura from her death sentence?

BUT it is a valid point. I think most people assumed (including the characters on BSG) that Roslin would die before they reached "Earth".

Cheers.